by Ped article originally published in 2005 reprinted on July 26 2010 in this Google Knol
Abstract It has been argued that increases in the daily count of missing pet ads published in newspapers predictably precede earthquakes within the region on the newspapers coverage. To clarify this idea the Missing Pet Ads Window Hypothesis was created to the extent possible determined by statements created by Jim Berkland on his internet website concerning his practical experience with this topic. To check the hypothesis at this time at version 2.one Berkland provided his record of missing cat ads compiled from the San Jose Mercury for the year 1989 which included the highest levels of missing pet advertisements in this newspaper in the course of the final quarter-century. Nearby earthquakes throughout that year incorporated the M5.four Lake Elsman earthquake on August 8 along with the regions biggest occasion considering that 1906 the magnitude 7. Sigma armada 8x23 0 Loma Prieta earthquake on October 17 each inside of 20 miles 32 km of San Jose. A comparison of the 1989 pet ad information together with the record of M4.five earthquakes throughout that year indicates the following-
The uniquely extraordinary improve in missing pet advertisements in 1989 followed -- rather than preceded -- the uniquely extraordinary earthquake. That extraordinary raise in missing pet ads in late October apparently manifested a fright and flight response caused by the M7.0 earthquake and is hence earthquake-dependent. Earthquake-dependent anomalies contaminate post-earthquake pet ad data with noise that need to be removed from the data or ignored for the purposes of earthquake prediction and prediction evaluation. Ignoring the earthquake-dependent boost in late October leaves two significant pet ad anomalies in 1989 -- in June and September -- every of which was followed by a significant earthquake close to San Jose- the M5.4 Lake Elsman earthquake in August as well as the M7.0 Loma Prieta shock in October. The v2.one Hypothesis successfully postdicted the time spot and magnitude parameters for the M7.0 earthquake according to the September anomaly provided prior understanding of either the occurrence time or the magnitude for the M5.4 earthquake postdiction was profitable for location only based on the June anomaly given prior know-how with the magnitude there had been no totally false alarms i.e. considerable anomalies that were not followed by a substantial earthquake and which were not otherwise accounted for and there was one particular failure to predict an M4.5 event in early April. The v2.one Hypothesis is unable to predict all 3 parameters of your expected earthquake time place and magnitude concurrently one parameter ought to initial be determined independently optimally the magnitude in an effort to predict the other parameters. Amplitude on the pet ad anomaly is apparently not related to the magnitude on the later circumstantially-associated earthquake but may possibly be associated to earthquakes distance at the very least for earthquakes bigger than M5. The 1989 pet ad information usually do not assistance the claim that pets go missing in uncommon numbers after regular fireworks celebrations the so-called July 4th effect. Extra years of data on missing pet advertisements are necessary to distinguish amongst two interpretations of the final results- a the v2.one Hypothesis describes some earthquakes but not all and b the v2.one Hypothesis describes no earthquakes and efficiently postdicted the M7.0 Loma Prieta earthquake parameters by a random coincidence. The two pre-earthquake pet ad anomalies in 1989 just barely reached or exceeded the threshold of 100 above the preceding month-to-month common which is defined as the significance threshold inside the v2.one Hypothesis lowering the significance threshold somewhat may be regarded in future versions with the Hypothesis to be able to greater detect anomalies that may well have predictive worth. Concurrent analysis of missing pet ad counts in adjacent newspaper coverage locations might provide a signifies to infer the value in the initial earthquake parameter time spot or magnitude required for the v2.1 Hypothesis to predict the remaining two earthquake parameters. The fright and flight response of domesticated cats to strongly felt earthquakes could prove to be a general behavior of animals. If so then the media reports of uncommon animal behavior that was observed in advance of the December 2004 tsunami reached the Indian Ocean coast might be explained basically as a response to the minutes-long ground shaking from the M9.0 Sumatra earthquake which was reported felt around the entire Indian Ocean perimeter at Modified Mercalli Intensities of at least III-IV instead of to a mysterious sixth sense of animals towards the approaching tsunami disaster. Do missing pets predict earthquakes Around the basis in the readily available pet ad information the null hypothesis -- that pets do not go missing with higher frequency before earthquakes than at other times -- can not be rejected categorically or dogmatically. Introduction A record of the every day counts of missing cat ads including lost plus identified ads within the San Jose Mercury Table one was in comparison to the record of M4.five earthquakes inside the newspapers central California coverage place Table two for the year 1989.
This comparison tested the Missing Pet Advertisements Window Hypothesis v2.1 hereafter called the v2.1 Hypothesis drafted during December 2004 albeit incompletely with limited input from James O. Berkland in exchanges on the message boards of his web web page www.syzygyjob.net. Berkland is often a geologist well-known inside the San Francisco Bay Area for his monthly earthquake predictions determined by 8-day windows around the time of new and complete moons syzygy. He sometimes dietary supplements his predictions for chosen regions with inferences depending on trends inside the daily tally of missing pet advertisements in neighborhood newspapers.
The v2.1 Hypothesis Appendix predicts that an earthquake inside a specified magnitude assortment will occur within a specified distance from the centroid in the newspapers coverage place inside of a specified time window following the date on which the missing pet ad count initial exceeds a significance threshold of 100 above the preceding monthly normal empirically derived by Berkland. In the Hypothesis statement equations generalize by me from Berklands anecdotes relate magnitude and distance and occurrence time and magnitude. Inversions of these equations yield time place or magnitude offered among the parameters.
The record of M4.five earthquakes was obtained by a search with the USGS Northern California Seismic Network catalog around the web site of the Northern California Earthquake Information Center. The region searched is centered on downtown San Jose assumed to become the centroid in the newspapers coverage place and bounded by latitudes 35 and 40 degrees North and longitudes 119 and 125 degrees West Figure 1. The year of record 1989 included the magnitude 7.0 Loma Prieta earthquake on October 17 local time the epicenter of which was located 20 miles 32 km south of downtown San Jose Figure one. That was the largest earthquake within the region given that the wonderful San Francisco earthquake in 1906.
Figure one. Places with the three biggest earthquakes near San Jose California in 1989. Source- US Geological Survey
The 1989 missing cat ad data had been compiled by Jim Berkland in that year and transcribed by him around the Prediction Evaluation message board on his site in January 2005.
In 1989 the level of missing pet ads inside the San Jose Mercury peaked in the highest levels observed involving 1974 and 2005 as outlined by Berkland. For this evaluation the month-to-month typical especially a 30-day moving typical from the day-to-day count of missing pet ads Figure 2a was subtracted from the raw day-to-day ad count Figure 2b around the final day on the moving-average interval for every day in 1989 and expressed in per cent in the 30-day regular worth Figure 2c. This percentage deviation from the preceding month-to-month regular provides the basis for identifying anomalous fluctuations inside the pet ad data.
Figure 2. Missing cat ads inside the San Jose Mercury through 1989. Supply- James O. Berkland
Obviously a lot of pets go missing but few are reported in newspaper ads. These which can be usually are advertised for various days at a time and most likely not at uniform rates for the duration of the week or month. As a result pet advertisements represent only a compact sample of missing pet behavior plus the pet ad information have problems with an unknown but presumably massive amount of duplicate or irregular reporting. The primary virtues from the information are that they exist and they may be publicly accessible. The averaging of your information in this study we believe will assist to reduce the confounding effects of information excellent. The length of record we hope will atone a minimum of in component for the smaller sample size.
Final results There have been 16 M4.5 earthquakes inside the San Jose area through 1989- a M4.5 event on April three the M5.4 Lake Elsman earthquake on August eight and also the M7.0 Loma Prieta shock on October 17 and 13 of its aftershocks which occurred from October 17 through November one. All events were on or near the San Andreas fault inside of approximately 28 miles 45 km south of San Jose except for the April earthquake which was close to the Calaveras fault around 10 miles 16 km northeast of San Jose.
The deviation on the raw everyday ad count from the preceding monthly average reveals three anomalies in the data -- occasions once the daily ad count reached 100 of the preceding month-to-month common. Only after in October did an anomaly stay for longer than each day above the 100 significance threshold. This October anomaly will be the uniquely prominent function of 1989 pet ad record. The October 17 earthquake would be the exclusive seismic event in the sample interval certainly the distinctive occasion in the region given that 1906. Nevertheless the unique anomaly does not precede the exclusive earthquake but follows it emerging above the 100 significance threshold on October 27 ten days after the earthquake and peaking a single day later.
As further explained and discussed beneath the prominent pet ad anomaly in late October is nearly surely a consequence in the exceptional October 17 shock. Because it is an earthquake-dependent anomaly it truly is ignored in this evaluation of an earthquake-predictive model. This leaves just two pet ad anomalies available for testing the v2.one Hypothesis- the single-day anomalies on June 17 and September 20.
Postdicting earthquakes from the two candidate anomalies The v2.1 Hypothesis just isnt fully deterministic for time spot and magnitude unless of course one parameter is fixed a priori. The reason is that the relationship if any in between the properties of the missing pet ad anomaly e.g. amplitude duration rise time as well as the magnitude or distance of your expected earthquake is unknown.
It has been claimed and is expressed in the Hypothesis that anomaly amplitude varies directly using the magnitude of the expected earthquake andor with its distance from the centroid of your newspapers coverage area. Nonetheless no relationship amongst anomaly amplitude on one hand plus the magnitude or distance parameters on the other hand has ever been offered by Berkland. His anecdotes relating magnitude and distance and magnitude and time offered the emergence of an anomaly are all thats obtainable. As a result the Hypothesis was tested by postdicting the time place and magnitude parameters of your real earthquakes that followed the June and September anomalies utilizing the restricted relationships expressed inside the Hypothesis. Outcomes of your postdictions are below.
Soon after the June 17 anomaly the primary M4.five earthquake was the M5.4 Lake Elsman occasion 52 days later. Its epicenter was positioned roughly 14 miles 22 km south of downtown San Jose. Given the real time place and magnitude parameters of this earthquake the v2.1 Hypothesis postdicted two on the event parameters together with the third parameter fixed -- alternatively fixing each in the three parameters and postdicting the other folks Table three.
Table 3. Parameters for the Lake Elsman earthquake as postdicted by the v2.1 Hypothesis based on the June 17 missing pet ad anomaly. The fixed parameter for each postdiction is underscored the postdicted parameters are in purple and not underscored.
Time Distance Magnitude
Actual parameters 52 days 14 mi M5.4
Time-fixed 52 days M10
Distance-fixed 1-4 days M3.2
Magnitude-fixed - 0.five 15-22 days M5.four After the September 20 anomaly the primary M4.5 earthquake was the M7.0 Loma Prieta shock 27 days later. Its epicenter was situated roughly 20 miles 32 km south of downtown San Jose. Again the v2.1 Hypothesis postdicted time spot and magnitude parameters for this earthquake by alternatively fixing each of the 3 parameters and postdicting the others Table 4.
Table 4. Parameters for the Loma Prieta earthquake as postdicted by the v2.1 Hypothesis determined by the September 20 missing pet ad anomaly. The fixed parameter for every single postdiction is underscored postdicted parameters are in purple and not underscored.
Time Distance Magnitude
Actual parameters 27 days 20 mi M7.0
Time-fixed 27 days M6.9
Distance-fixed 2-4 days M3.3
Magnitude-fixed - 0.5 25-32 days M7.0 Failure to predict the April 3 earthquake The M4.five occasion in April was not preceded by a missing pet ad anomaly at the significance threshold of 100 above the preceding month-to-month average. This apparently represents a failure to predict for the v2.1 Hypothesis.
Prior to the April 3 earthquake there exists on the other hand a sustained enhance inside the pet ad count with the significance degree of 50 above the preceding monthly average. That is from March 5 by 9 the daily count remained above the 50 level for 3 out of 5 days. Had this March anomaly reached the 100 level there would are no failure to predict the April three event. This predicament suggests that the significance threshold of 100 within the v2.1 Hypothesis ought to be lowered so that you can detect smaller anomalies that may have predictive value. It also suggests that little earthquakes might be preceded by missing pet ad anomalies with amplitudes which can be decrease than for anomalies preceding larger earthquakes at the very least in some instances.
Longer-term anomalies From late July for the time of the Loma Prieta earthquake in October there was a progressive raise inside the 30-day moving typical. All through the primary half of 1989 the 30-day moving regular remained close to ten missing pet ads per day. From August to mid-October the long-term rate elevated to practically 20 ads every day. This months-long increase unquestionably differs from the days-long fright and flight response towards the earthquakes in April and in October. Nevertheless it cannot be ruled out that the progressive raise was no less than in portion a fright and flight response to the M5.4 Lake Elsman earthquake in August.
Moreover considering that we have only one particular year of information accessible for examination it cant be identified irrespective of whether a long-term maximize in pet ad count in the course of the summer season is common of each and every year. Even so the culmination on the summer time trend in mid-October in the approximate time of the Loma Prieta earthquake and its M4.5 aftershocks circumstantially associates the long-term improve with that exclusive earthquake occasion. The correspondence commends an investigation of long-term anomalies in missing pet ads as a worthy subject for future study.
Fright and flight effect It has been claimed and is expressed in the v2.1 Hypothesis that the each day count of missing pet ads surges right after traditional fireworks celebrations on July 4th and immediately after extreme thunderstorms on account of a fright and flight response of pets to these environmental disturbances. From that it has been argued that the exclusive pet ad anomaly in October 1989 likewise resulted from a fright and flight response of pets to the powerful shaking in the M7.0 earthquake.
A July 4th effect makes intuitive sense. However within the 1989 missing cat ad information there was no effect soon after July 4th. If this claimed impact should be to be accepted itll have to be established from a comparison of July pet ad information more than quite a few years.
Nonetheless media reports of loose cats canines and other domesticated animals are typical soon after urban earthquake disasters along with the possible for lost or neglected pets just after an earthquake is sufficiently acute that US federal state and several regional governments and civil emergency services offer you disaster preparing and response guidance specifically for pet owners. So it seems fair to assume that the distinctive pet ad anomaly after the M7.0 earthquake does manifest an elevated frequency of escaped pets right after that regionally damaging earthquake and this interpretation is accepted here.
Support for this interpretation is found in the following information-
Right after the October 17 earthquake the duration in the M4.five aftershock period 16 days from October 17 by November 1 inclusive matches the duration from the subsequent pet ad anomaly as measured from its initial and last crossing with the 0 degree in Figure 2c 16 days from October 21 by means of November five inclusive suggesting that the mainshock-aftershock sequence frightened the animals caused them to go missing and resulted within the elevated missing pet advertisements. The interval of your October pet ad anomaly defined by its zero-crossings noted above lags the interval on the mainshock and its 1989 M4.5 aftershocks by 4 days. The peak value of the October anomaly occurred 11 days following the mainshock. That lag is concerning the level of time expected for pet owners to start submitting and publishing missing pet advertisements in neighborhood newspapers. The M4.five occasion on April three was likewise followed by a sharp enhance within the raw pet ad count. The increase is manifested as a 1-day spike above the 50 significance level on April 8 Figure 2c. It is not classified as an anomaly in this research because it will not reach the 100 threshold. Depending on the 5-day lag of this spike right after the earthquake this enhance in pet ad count is interpreted as a different situation of earthquake fright-and-flight response -- a miniature on the prominent October anomaly that followed the M7.0 event. The M5.four Lake Elsman occasion in August was followed by a steep and continuous rise in pet ad count that peaked four days soon after the earthquake having said that its peak amplitude relative for the preceding month-to-month typical was even reduce than that right after the M4.5 event. Accepting the fright and flight interpretation for these post-earthquake increases in pet ads it follows as a rule that any increase in missing pet ads inside the days right after a moderate or big earthquake and its moderate-magnitude aftershocks must be suspected to become earthquake-dependent and for that reason considered noise to become removed from the data or ignored as a basis for predicting added earthquakes in the course of the noisy mainshock aftermath.
Tsunami psychics Possibly essentially the most consistent observation in this research is the fact that the count of missing cat advertisements abruptly improved soon after every considerable earthquake and peaked from 4 to 11 days later. This most likely usually means that cats fled their homes in unusually large numbers in the hours to days following each and every of the earthquakes and did so in response to the environmental disturbance brought on by the earthquakes.
Alternatively the cats represented by these post-earthquake pet ad increases may well have gone missing before every single earthquake inside a bona fide premonitory behavior and their owners merely didnt report them missing until afterward. If so on the other hand the pet ad information are silent on this alternate and any premonitory signal right here is useless for purposes of earthquake prediction.
The fright-and-flight response after perceptible earthquake shaking may perhaps prove to be a general behavior of animals. If thats the case it delivers insight into media accounts published soon after the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami disaster of unusual animal behavior observed prior to the tsunami reached the Indian Ocean coast e.g. Elephants as tsunami detectors Did animals sense tsunami was coming.
For example elephants and also other wild animals had been reportedly seen racing inland or to higher ground prior to the waves arrived how long just before just isnt clear and domesticated animals usually were presumed to have escaped the coastal villages ahead with the effect simply because few animal carcasses were identified in the tsunamis instant aftermath. This pre-tsunami behavior has been reported as a sixth sense attributed towards the animals conjuring up speculation on supernatural causes.
Having said that the ground shaking from the M9.0 Sumatra earthquake was reported felt around the entire Indian Ocean perimeter at Modified Mercalli Intensities estimated to become at least III-IV USGS 2005 -- and also the shaking no doubt continued for several minutes in these affected places. Assuming the earthquake rupture began near Banda Aceh and propagated northward for 1000 km along the subduction zone at near a shear-wave velocity of two.five kms the mainshock lasted roughly 6 minutes.
From its source along the Sunda trench the tsunami traveled at around 800 kmh ignoring interference from bathymetric features. The earthquakes shaking radiated from exactly the same zone roughly 10 times more quickly assuming the shear-wave velocity noted above. Therefore the earthquake preceded the very first tsunami wave by 10-15 minutes in Sumatra by about 45 minutes in southern Thailand by somewhat extra than 1.5 hours in Sri Lanka and by 2.five hours or so in India. The disappearance of animals from these coasts ahead of the tsunami is therefore only explained by their fright and flight response for the shaking instead of to a mysterious sixth sense of animals to the approaching tsunami disaster.
Discussion In retrospectively evaluating the v2.one Hypothesis against the Lake Elsman and Loma Prieta earthquakes it is important to note that no missing pet ad data from 1989 and no information related to these two earthquakes have been used in producing the Hypothesis. The Hypothesis and its tests reported right here are as a result independent on the 1989 information and keep away from the problem of circular reasoning.
Fixed-place Tests The v2.one Hypothesis failed utterly to postdict the time and magnitude parameters of the two earthquakes given a prior know-how with the earthquake areas place. These two events had almost overlapping rupture zones within 14 miles 22 km south of San Jose and also the epicenters of both were inside 20 miles 32 km with the city. On the basis of these modest earthquake distances the Hypothesis postdicted only non-significant earthquakes to occur immediately after the anomaly and immediately afterward too i.e. occasions barely above M3 and inside of just some days immediately after the anomaly. The fixed-place postdictions are for that reason failures.
Obviously a relationship of some sort should be established amongst the missing pet ad anomaly plus the distance to the expected earthquake in the event the target is always to accurately predict the time and magnitude of an earthquake at a specified distance because the v2.1 Hypothesis states. Anomaly amplitude may perhaps deliver this kind of a relationship. The June and September anomalies had nearly identical peak values near the 100 threshold and every single was followed by a substantial earthquake at nearly exactly the same distance from San Jose. These earthquakes differed greatly in magnitude M5.4 vs. M7.0 however along with the M4.5 April three event was also at virtually the identical distance but not preceded by a considerable pet ad anomaly. Therefore anomaly amplitude may perhaps provide a relationship to earthquake distance but not for earthquakes smaller than about M5.
Fixed-time Tests Offered prior know-how of earthquake time i.e. the amount of days in between the anomaly plus the following earthquake the v2.1 Hypothesis postdicted the actual distance and magnitude parameters with the Loma Prieta earthquake reasonably nicely.
For the Lake Elsman earthquake the prior knowledge of your events time enabled the v2.1 Hypothesis to successfully postdict the location in which the earthquake occurred even though a 500-mile radius has dubious merit in predicting a moderate earthquake. However it postdicted an illogical magnitude M10 for this M5.four event and is consequently a failed postdiction.
Fixed-magnitude Tests The distance parameters postdicted from the fixed-magnitude tests seem to have successfully bounded the locations of the two the Lake Elsman and Loma Prieta earthquakes.
For the Loma Prieta earthquake the fixed-magnitude check likewise closely bounds the actual occurrence time of this occasion and together using the postdicted distance parameter results in an exceedingly tiny random probability of accomplishment had the v2.1 Hypothesis on September 20 basically predicted an approaching M7.0 earthquake. That is the prediction would have been very precise and accurate had the magnitude been recognized in advance.
For the Lake Elsman earthquake the fixed-magnitude test considerably underestimates the actual 52-day wait in advance of of this occasion occurred and is for that reason a failed postdiction.
Conclusions A check on the v2.one Hypothesis with just a single year of missing pet ad information is wholly inadequate as a basis for anything but broad speculation. On that basis hence the following broad speculations comply with-
When the approximate magnitude of an earthquake is recognized in advance the v2.one Hypothesis may perhaps permit prediction of the place in which the earthquake will happen and also the basic time of occurrence inside a window a couple of weeks in length. In the event the approximate date of your earthquake is identified in advance the Hypothesis might allow prediction on the location where the earthquake will take place and -- at times -- the magnitude of your earthquake inside a window of - 0.5 units. When the approximate location from the earthquake is recognized in advance the Hypothesis is useless for predicting its date of occurrence and magnitude. Provided independent proof that an earthquake is anticipated within the restricted place in the newspapers coverage predicting the earthquakes time and magnitude parameters from a pet ad anomaly is plainly not attainable together with the v2.1 Hypothesis unless of course the relationship if any among earthquake distance as well as the properties in the pet ad anomaly may be established.
Anomaly amplitude is apparently not connected towards the magnitude with the later earthquakes. Having said that the 1989 data suggest that anomaly amplitude may well be associated earthquake distance for earthquakes larger than M5 or so.
Cultural disturbances like regular July 4th fireworks celebrations it really is claimed and earthquakes themselves it seems trigger surges inside the count of missing pet ads in local newspapers. The surges following earthquakes are as a result earthquake-dependent -- as an alternative to earthquake precursory -- and will need to be identified within the data and removed or ignored for the goal of earthquake prediction and prediction evaluation. The require for this data validation has substantially in prevalent with all the practice of removing earthquake-dependent earthquakes aftershocks from earthquake catalogs declustering in order to search for predictive relationships. For missing pet advertisements sadly there exists yet no way to model the fright and flight response to a provided earthquake to ensure that it might be subtracted from the data. As a result the pet ad counts in the days to weeks following a substantial earthquake will need to be regarded as suspect and of questionable worth as a basis for further predictions.
Two interpretations from the above results are-
The v2.one Hypothesis describes some earthquakes but not all. The v2.1 Hypothesis describes no earthquakes the thriving postdiction of your parameters for the Loma Prieta earthquake offered its occurrence time or magnitude was a random coincidence. To be able to distinguish among these two interpretations added years of data on missing pet ads are required.
If the 1st interpretation proves to become proper then the guidelines in the Hypothesis that relate the date of the emergent anomaly for the time and magnitude of the anticipated earthquake need to be refined in accord with all the new observations in an effort to strengthen the predictive electrical power of your Hypothesis.
Really should the Hypothesis be supported by future testing it really is affordable to consider that concurrent analysis of missing pet ad counts in adjacent newspaper coverage locations may perhaps deliver a suggests to infer the initial parameter value time location or magnitude thats necessary for the v2.one Hypothesis to predict the remaining two earthquake parameters.
Additionally several other queries should be addressed- a Does the peak amplitude on the pet ad anomaly present info in regards to the distance of your anticipated earthquake b Do long-term months-long trends within the monthly regular of the pet ad count systematically precede large earthquakes c Do event-dependent pet ad anomalies systematically comply with July 4th fireworks celebrations and considerable earthquakes and if so can they be modeled and removed in order that large intervals of data want not be discarded and d In regard to their earthquake sensibilities are animals greater characterized as watch dogs or scaredy cats
An hypothesis is only as great as the information that went into it and valuable couple of data -- all anecdotal -- went into establishing the v2.one Hypothesis. The extra evidence from the 1989 information set and the benefits of the foregoing tests deliver an insufficient basis on which to modify v2.one. Additional historical data are essential to test and increase the Hypothesis and advance the understanding of missing pet behavior before earthquakes.
Until eventually the Missing Pet Ads Window Hypothesis v2.1 is substantially enhanced using it to predict long term earthquakes is unwarranted -- and performing so is just not authorized by any celebration involved in its improvement.
Sun-Star Magazine February two 2005 Elephants as tsunami detectorsReturn
Maryann Mott National Geographic News January four 2005 Did Animals Sense Tsunami Was ComingReturn
US Geological Survey 2005 Did You Feel It USGS Community World-wide-web Intensity Map for the Banda Aceh Sumatra earthquakeReturn
Disclaimer This report was prepared by an anonymous contributor to the board inside the spirit of advancing crucial believed on the topic of earthquake prediction and perhaps in the spirits of humor plus a bit of your Glenmorangie 18 Year. Neither the writer nor anybody or any agency related with the author tends to make any warranty expressed or implied or assumes any legal responsibility for the accuracy completeness or usefulness of any information apparatus product or procedure disclosed in the report or represents that its use wouldnt infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any certain commercial item course of action or service by trade name trademark manufacturer or otherwise will not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement recommendation or favoring by the author or any agency thereof except for the whiskey. Any views and opinions from the author expressed herein tend not to necessarily state or reflect these of anybody in particular. This report is preliminary and has not been reviewed for conformity with editorial specifications of any variety you gotta problem with it talk for the screen. No missing animals were harmed in this study.
Publication date-February 8 2005
In memory of our our beloved terrier Mackie Scotch certainly who disappeared from our Sylmar household on this date in 1971. We generally suspected the kinky professor next door but have been under no circumstances in a position to prove it.
APPENDIX-Statement of Missing Pet Advertisements Window Hypothesis v2.1 as posted in December 2004
Background- James O. Berkland is has certainly not formally published or supplied on his web web page a clear and testable statement about how missing pet ads might be employed to predict earthquakes. Normally his inferences have taken the kind of Lost canines inside the are close to the degree final witnessed in just before the earthquake so count on a magnitude earthquake within miles of for the duration of the following 8-day seismic window.... Based on various this kind of statements in late 2004 I cobbled together v1.0 in the Missing Pet Advertisements Window Hypothesis written in Berklands voice posted it on his web website and invited Berkland to fix it exactly where I got it wrong. He offered a couple of corrections which enabled revisions up to v2.one in the hypothesis and lastly he graciously offered the 1989 missing cat ad information from the San Jose Mercury to test the hypothesis. The foregoing paper documents that check. Under is the statement in the v2.1 Hypothesis such as it can be determined by Berklands limited input. My unfulfilled requests for his further input are IN BRACKETS. Return
v2.1 Hypothesis Statement Much more than 20 years of practical experience indicates that the count of paid newspaper advertisements for missing pets rapidly increases before considerable earthquake activity inside the surrounding place. The following statement formalizes these observations as the Missing Pet Ads Window Hypothesis.
The authors study of missing pet ads MPAs in six U.S. newspapers and further observations of MPAs by other people posted on www.syzygyjob.net display proof for anomalous peaks inside the counts of MPAs prior to earthquakes. The proof is found in every newspaper that reported a MPA count above an empirically pre-defined monthly average. FUZZY- YOUR 5 TO 10 Isnt CLEAR PLEASE Overview Last PARA Before SYNTHESIS FOR Superior DEFINITION
The MPA anomalies are circumstantially associated not just with ensuing earthquakes but with other aspects such as ambient disturbances on account of huge thunderstorms and to July 4th fireworks celebrations. In instances in which other components are confidently excluded the MPA count has elevated by 100 to 200 above the preceding month-to-month normal prior the circumstantially linked earthquake.
The amplitude of enhance in MPA count varies directly with the magnitude of the earthquake that follows and inversely together with the distance on the earthquake from the centroid on the newspapers coverage area. CAN YOU DEFINE MY CENTROID Far more PRECISELY PLEASE Frequently given two important MPA anomalies of differing amplitude a larger-magnitude earthquake are going to be anticipated to comply with the larger-amplitude anomaly other factors currently being equal. Conversely offered two identical MPA anomalies 1 may perhaps be followed by a larger-magnitude earthquake but at a higher epicentral distance.
Consequently with out a constraint on anticipated magnitude or epicentral distance an MPA anomaly yields an ambiguous prediction. Empirically if epicentral distance is specified a priori a considerable MPA anomaly will be followed by an earthquake within the magnitude ranges indicated below-
71 - 140 miles 3.0-3.9
140 - 210 miles 5.0-5.9
211 - 280 miles 6.0-6.9
281 - 350 miles 7.0-8.0 The relationship is linear this kind of that M 0.014D three - 0.five exactly where M may be the predicted magnitude neighborhood Richter magnitude for M 6.0 FIX AS NEEDED and D is epicentral distance in miles from the centroid from the newspapers coverage region.
MISSING LOGIC AD- Jim the table above relates magnitude to epicentral distance -- for an unspecified significant MPA anomaly. As the anomaly AMPLITUDE varies say a peak of 100 vs. 200 above baseline how does the table transform Logic says it will need to.
The causes of the MPA anomalies are unknown but are suspected to become connected to geophysical earthquake precursors.
The present study and prior analysis by Nafarrate 1980 display that the time interval between the peak MPA anomaly and the circumstantially connected earthquake hereafter termed the anomaly-earthquake interval varies straight together with the earthquakes magnitude. This anomaly-earthquake interval is as a lot as 3 weeks for a magnitude 6 occasion for example.
The stimulus or stimuli leading to pets to run away appears to happen 7 to ten days prior to the connected earthquake BASED ON WHAT Evidence. The stimulus-response time the news publication method deliberation in reporting pets missing as well as other time-related things introduce delays in to the MPA anomaly signal. Based on encounter the aggregate delay between the runaway plus the appearance of the corresponding missing pet ad is estimated to become 3 days or longer on average. Accordingly for small-magnitude earthquakes the delayed MPA count may not reach its peak until eventually near the time of the earthquake or as much as two days afterward.
Obviously the zero-to-peak amplitude of the newspaper MPA anomaly can not be recognized a priori plus the anomaly-earthquake interval estimated when the MPA count peaks after the earthquake with which it can be presumed to be associated. As a partial but practical resolution towards the MPA signal-delay difficulty the reference point for estimating the anomaly-earthquake interval will be the to begin with date within the anomaly on which the MPA count exceeds 100 of the normal count through the preceding month rather than reckoning from the MPA anomaly peak which may well be indeterminate. WOULD YOU RATHER USE A More CONVENTIONAL 2-SIGMA 95 THRESHOLD TO DEFINE A SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY Rather than AN EQUALLY ARBITRARY 100 THRESHOLD
The remaining signal-delay difficulty is that when the ultimate MPA anomaly amplitude is indeterminate then the anticipated magnitude and epicentral distance -- which are dependent on peak anomaly amplitude -- cant be confidently estimated. This calls for that estimates of anticipated magnitude and distance should be updated continuously because the MPA anomaly evolves rendering the inferences as lower-bound estimates only until a definite peak is observed.
Empirically hence the anomaly-earthquake interval can be frequently estimated as T 7M - 21 - 2 in which T is days following the date on which the growing MPA count very first exceeds 100 in the month-to-month normal and M is magnitude determined above with epicentral distance specified. WHEN DO YOU EXPIRE THE PREDICTION IF IT REMAINS UNFULFILLED aka call it a failure
The varieties of animals within the ads counted are canines cats and birds. The MPA information are defined as the combined total on the every day counts of lost plus discovered pets of all of the aforementioned varieties inside a provided newspaper where the typical count of lost plus discovered advertisements for every single form is at the least five ads daily established by not less than one particular month of every day observations in that newspaper. For example in the LA Times on 1232004 cats- L4F15 missing canines- L14F620 missing birds L1F01 missing Total pets missing- 520126 in which L and F distinguish Lost and Found subcounts. Pet sorts with lost plus discovered ad counts beneath that typical each day threshold are ignored.
SYNTHESIS From the above the Missing Pet Ads Window Hypothesis follows that one when the count of missing pet ads as previously defined inside a U.S. newspaper increases by at the least 100 above the preceding month-to-month common and 2 the anomaly in missing pet ads just isnt otherwise accounted for e.g. as in July then three an earthquake will occur of predicted magnitude M 0.014D 3 - 0.5 in which D is distance in miles specified from the centroid with the newspapers coverage location and 4 within the predicted time of T 7M - 21 - 2 days following the date on which the missing pet ad count initially surpassed the 100 significance threshold.
JIM REVISE AWAY Return
NOTE Additional IN REPRINTING- Its now 2010. In 2006 one particular year following this paper was originally published Berkland detailed his earthquake predictions and his anecdotal proof for them in his biography Orey 2006. Nowhere in it does he respond for the queries raised by the v2.1 Hypothesis or otherwise explain how anomalies inside the count of lost pet advertisements are related towards the earthquakes he claims they predict. So v2.one remains the only insight in to the Missing Pet Advertisements Window Hypothesis. In help of his suggestions nonetheless the Forward to his book page xiv does acknowledge this paper plus the authoritative journal in which it had been published- One more additional latest study by an anonymous researcher analyzed Berklands missing pet ad data from 1989--taking important elements into account that Schaal missed--and supports Berklands hypothesis. For extra details on this research see Do Missing Pets Predict Earthquakes A Check from the Hypothesis inside the 2005 matter with the Journal of Unconfirmed Nonsense and Know-how which may be accessed on the web- www.sharemation.comPedestrian1857MissingPets-v.2.1.html. Go figure
Cal Orey 2006 The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes -- Jim Berkland Maverick Geologist- How His Quake Warnings Can Save Lives Sentient Publications 286 p.
Table1. Day-to-day counts of missing cat advertisements inside the San Jose Mercury newspaper throughout 1989 as supplied by Jim Berkland on January ten 2005 around the Prediction Evaluation message board of his web page www.syzygyjob.net. Return
Table 2. M4.5 earthquakes in the San Jose Mercury newspaper coverage area during 1989 from an online search with the USGS Northern California Seismic Network catalog in the Northern California Earthquake Data Center web site. The coverage area is centered on downtown San Jose and generalized as latitudes 35 to 40 degrees North longitudes 119 to 125 degrees West. Return
Please Cite the Above Paper As-
Ped 2005 Do Missing Pets Predict Earthquakes- A check of the hypothesis Journal of Unconfirmed Nonsense and Expertise v. 1 no. one p. one.
Thats appropriate. This journal includes a pretty low shelving index. At one page per research report the libraries will enjoy us
Concerning the Journal of Unconfirmed Nonsense and Expertise 2005 The Journal of Unconfirmed Nonsense and Understanding the Journal could be the official organ on the Society for the Exploration of your Unknown the Society. Its pages are dedicated to authentic interdisciplinary research which is at after incisive but irreverent vital yet open-minded intrepid but circumspect sober nevertheless spirited and which the typical reader would identify as close to the turbulent boundary from the cold dense and laminar mainstream of science. The Journals Editorial Board as well as the Society respectfully request that will need to a reference citation be utilised that differs from the example above the Journals title not be abbreviated and if so the acronym JUNK be avoided. Only soon after the inaugural concern on the Journal had arrived with the worlds analysis libraries did we notice how unfortunate the choice of title was selected because it occurred by a committee whose co-chairs insisted that the title incorporate certain but contrary key terms and who in the interest of resolving the debate peacefully and moving the board meeting to cocktails had been placated only by a vote that the title contain all of them. Alas its also late to modify it now. In the event you should abbreviate then the Board plus the Society politely request that you just please regard the final three letters from the titles acronym to imply UNKnown. Journal Editorial Policy Problems of the Journal are electronically auto-published -- a technical term which we may well have just produced up have not Googled it fairly however and which web-savvy researchers will promptly comprehend as- Do not send me no stinking manuscripts -- you place it on line dammit And kindly make sure to incorporate the Journals full title as part of your paper to ensure that we who also count ourselves amongst the Journals subscribers can find your publication with our favored search engine. In other words this journal of academic study is open-source clever eh. Journal Editorial Specifications Do not bother asking. There are actually none. The quality of scholarship readability and material rely entirely upon the innate ability of every writer to read write and spell at the same time as edit herhis own get the job done. Priority of Publication Exactly where authors of unique papers claim ownership on the very same simple investigation discovery published within the Journal priority for the discovery or publication thereof are going to be decided strictly around the basis of which writer can pee the farthest. Authors wishing a additional skilled common of priority or possibly a more favorable benefit are encouraged to seek a distinctive official organ. And Ultimately When auto-publishing in the Journal please involve the above legal paragraphs that determine the Journal and limit your liability. Anonymity is not needed even so honestly representing oneself in the by-line could possibly get you a nasty subpoena from the RIAA ASCAP or some other acronym a lot more pertinent for your subject-matter experience.
TOP Sigma armada 8x23 Sigma the first in biking computers
Germans are known for many contributions connected with quality. From producing cars like the Mercedes Benz to scientific improvements like Roentgen and the breakthrough discovery of X-rays Germans are known for being precise thinkers and sticklers for quality. At times they are meticulous to begin being anal retentive but that works out well for us with regards to quality cycling equipment.
Sigma Sport a The german language company located in Neustadt a great der Weinstrasse is a prime example connected with how meticulous give attention to a project could and will produce a excellent result. Sigma Sports started off in 1981 with an thought. This idea would spawn an execllent addition to the huge world of bicycle add-ons cycling computers. Generally Avocet is given credit intended for developing the first automated cycle computer but if you research the times you will see something different. Avocet introduced their computer to promote in 1983 whereas Sigma Sport was on the scene within 1982.
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